2010 Top Ten Predictions in Wireless
Here’s a sneak peek at an upcoming post over at iPhoneCTO.
Last night I attended the WirelessTechnology Forum’s yearly Vision 2010 in Mobile & Wireless. The WTF is a wireless industry association in Atlanta, GA focused specifically on the needs of wireless and mobile technologies products and services providers.
I thought it would be fun to put together a post on the predictions and hopefully spark some interesting discussion. I’m going to list them here along with my personal comment about each, but you can find the PDF with all the details as provided by inCode Telecom at this link. Thanks to inCode for making their document available and Jorge Fuenzalida of inCode for presenting and participating on the panel.
- Wireless Operators Push Netbooks, but They Prove A Mixed Bag
- Netbooks are going to be a confusing thing for customers to get their head around for a while until they find where they fit in their lives. The carriers are going to find it difficult to support something that consumers view more as a laptop than a phone.
- The FCC: Stuck in Neutral with the Net
- I don’t see the PCC coming to resolve on this in the next year. Every day the Internet exists, people’s expectations get more solidified that it should be free(as in unfiltered and unconstrained).
- Wireless Operators Play “Whack-a-Mole” with Data Issues
- Carriers will continue to complain about all this data taxing their infrustructure while at the same time trying to get higher margins out of their device and service offerings. Can’t have it both ways. We’re all going to want more, so quit whining and fix your networks.
- When all Devices are Smart, What Becomes Genius?
- It’s way to early to start thinking of the next class of devices. Probably more likely is that cell phone and smartphone and netbook will all trend to something more generic and encapsulate all of them. Any stabs at what this term will be?
- Wireless Data Pricing Looks More Like the Airlines’
- God, I hope not, but it seems inevitable. For a while, the carriers will likely unbundle their offerings so that the very lowest offering will still have some amount of “I don’t have to think about it, it’s just there.” dataplan. When each mobile device in the whole country is addressable and we don’t have to think about the costs of communicating with it, that will be a huge watershed for the culture at large. My hope is that we get through this a fast as possible and get to an everything for one flat fee plan and maybe even a data only plan(say VOIP).
- M2M Leads Operators into New Acquisition Area
- Inevitable, but early as a prediction. We need to tackle cost per unit and addressability issues first. (IPV6 anyone?)
- Looking at Clouds from Both Sides Now
- Maybe I’m wrong here, but I don’t see carriers as good cloud computing providers. I think that the business model just doesn’t fit with their mindset. Other players are much better prepared to offer this service and carriers should stick to providing reliable pipe.
- A Device Operating System Bites the Dust
- In the meeting we eliminated everyone but one. Palm.
- MVNOs Get New Lease on Life in a Very Different Form
- Not yet, but the biggest force for changing the game in terms of business model is Google. What if you could buy a device with a lifetime of connectivity included in the price?
- Game Console Video Kills the PC Star: at Least for Internet Video
- I don’t own a game console, so I can’t really comment here. I do however equate game console owners to early adopters and younger consumers who aren’t burned with the status quo.
- You Can’t Track the Players without a Scorecard
- Agreed. We are in a period of expansion to be followed by consolidation(every industry goes through this.) We can be assured that the metrics we rely on now won’t even begin to express where the future value is in the industry.
As you can see, inCode slipped in a bonus prediction, but as everyone knows, All good things go to 11.